Democratic decline: the data

Democratic decline: the data

In 2006, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), part of the Economist Group, published its first Democracy Index report.

EIU measures 167 countries and territories and, based on the overal score, places them in one of the following categories: full democracy, flawed democracy, hybrid regime or authoritarian regime.

Full democracies are nations where civil liberties and fundamental political freedoms are not only respected but also reinforced by a political culture conducive to the thriving of democratic principles.

Flawed democracies are nations where elections are fair and free and basic civil liberties are honoured but may have issues (e.g. media freedom infringement and minor suppression of political opposition and critics).

Hybrid regimes are nations with regular electoral frauds, preventing them from being fair and free democracies.

Finally, authoritarian regimes are nations where political pluralism is nonexistent or severely limited.

Democracy Index was published every two years from 2006 to 2010, and on a yearly basis from 2010 onward.

Back in 2006, the world, as measured by EIU, comprised 28 full democracies, 54 flawed democracies, 30 hybrid regimes and 55 authoritarian regimes. 51.3% of the world population lived in a (full or flawed) democracy. It was a time of hope and democracy looked like it was on the rise.

In 2022, the world comprises 24 full democracies, 48 flawed democracies, 36 hybrid regimes and 59 authoritarian regimes. Only 45.3% of the world population now lives in a democracy.

The data show a democratic decline which is quite significant. From the hopeful 2000s we arived in the gloomy 2020s, via a series of major global or regional crises (the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, the failure of the Arab Spring, the European migrant crisis, the rise of illiberalism since 2016, the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine).

The world’s average democratic score was 5.52 in 2006. It declined to 5.29 in 2022. The best score so far was 5.55 in 2008, 2014 and 2015; the worst was 5.28 in 2021. The decline from 2015 (5.55) to 2021 (5.28) is the steepest so far.

The worst decline took place in Latin America (from 6.37 in 2015 to 5.79 in 2022), followed by Sub-Saharan Africa (from 4.38 in 2015 to 4.14 in 2022). But the decline happened everywhere, no region escaped it.

Here’s another way to look at the democratic decline: since 2006, not only the number of authoritarian regimes increased, but authoritarian regimes themselves became more authoritarian.

In 2006, Haiti, Venezuela and Russia were hybrid regimes. In 2022, all these three countries are authoritarian regimes.

At the same time, China was an authoritarian regime from 2006 onward, but its score declined from 2.97 in 2006 to 1.94 in 2022. The same is true for Afghanistan, for instance, who scored 3.06 in 2006 and fell to 0.32 in 2022.

The overall picture shows democracies becoming less democratic and authoritarian regimes becoming more authoritarian. There are exceptions, of course, but the trend is deeply worrying.